一本有助于理解作为一门科学的规制（regulation），有助于深入贯彻落实科学发展观的书。并希望极端气候下大家都能顺利过年。http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/product-description/0674025105/ref=dp_proddesc_0?ie=UTF8&n=283155&s=books      From Publishers Weekly
Sunstein, a University of Chicago law professor, often writes about government regulation. Here he focuses specifically on cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of actions that governments (as well as the private sector and individuals) can take to ward off potential crises. CBA has been used, most famously by George W. Bush's administration, to guide national policy; Bush critics believe the numbers are often fudged to get the results the White House wants. Oddly, Sunstein fails to investigate the science and politics of the Bush administration's chief cost-benefit guru, John D. Graham, but he does explore the uses and potential misuses of CBA, often in sufficient detail to challenge readers not well grounded in economics and statistics. Global warming serves as the narrative thread throughout the book, but Sunstein also looks at appropriate reactions to terrorist threats, genetic modification of food, hurricanes and avian flu, among other issues. Within the complex explanations, Sunstein does a reasonable job of achieving his three goals: to understand individual responses to worst-case scenarios (usually to plan far too much [or] far too little); to suggest more sensible public policy regarding low-probability risks of disaster; and to dispassionately evaluate CBA as a tool, especially as it pertains to policy making in the future (Nov.)
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Review
Worst-Case Scenarios is a powerful intellectual treatment about the most difficult problems facing society. The book makes it clear that these problems do not have easy answers. Sunstein's analysis also makes it clear that we would be better off if societal decision makers fully understood the insights he brings to these problems.
--Max Bazerman, Harvard Business School

Sunstein cuts through a great deal of confusion that is preventing the development of coherent and rational public policies. The issues raised by low-probability, high-consequence events are becoming more important as the world is more interconnected. Governments and citizens are not prepared to deal with these issues. This book will help.
--Jonathan Baron, University of Pennsylvania

Professor Sunstein provides cogent advice about how people should respond to low probabilities of catastrophe. He strikes a thoughtful middle ground, showing how we should be careful without being paranoid. While the applications to terrorism and climate change are insightful, his intellectual approach offers guidance for all sorts of possible catastrophes. The book is a must for leaders of business and government throughout the world.
--John Graham, Dean, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Worst-Case Scenarios is a rich analysis, both explanatory and normative, of societal responses to catastrophic risks such as terrorism and global warming. Sunstein occupies the fertile middle ground between the proponents of traditional rational-actor models and cost-benefit analysis, and those who reject these approaches entirely.
--Matthew D. Adler, University of Pennsylvania Law School

Book Description

Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction?

Cass Sunstein explores these and other worst-case scenarios and how we might best prevent them in this vivid, illuminating, and highly original analysis. Singling out the problems of terrorism and climate change, Sunstein explores our susceptibility to two opposite and unhelpful reactions: panic and utter neglect. He shows how private individuals and public officials might best respond to low-probability risks of disaster--emphasizing the need to know what we will lose from precautions as well as from inaction. Finally, he offers an understanding of the uses and limits of cost-benefit analysis, especially when current generations are imposing risks on future generations.

Throughout, Sunstein uses climate change as a defining case, because it dramatically illustrates the underlying principles. But he also discusses terrorism, depletion of the ozone layer, genetic modification of food, hurricanes, and worst-case scenarios faced in our ordinary lives. Sunstein concludes that if we can avoid the twin dangers of over-reaction and apathy, we will be able to ameliorate if not avoid future catastrophes, retaining our sanity as well as scarce resources that can be devoted to more constructive end

在科罗拉多的大雪里我也居然可以不穿毛衣毛裤，这让我觉得自己似乎真的有点变成一个南方人——我在这里说的“南方人”，意思基本上等同于冬天不怕冷，因为印象里上大学的时候只看见过浙江湖南一带来的彪人们有本事在三九天跑到水房光着屁股美滋滋地冲凉。即使去年冬天，北卡的气温并不比今冬更低，我还是例行公事一般把毛衣穿过了二月。这次，几件毛衣完全躺在橱里过冬了。

 

飞机落在罗利—杜兰姆机场的时候，我透过机窗望着看到跑道旁边那栋熟悉的停车大楼，问身边的人有没有哪怕是一点点到了家的感觉？她的意思却是对这里没有一点感觉。Well，我觉得也正常，其实我也无非就在这地方待了一年半而已，产生这类感觉确实多少有点矫情。不过矫情并不意味着虚假。07年的年末我两次在清晨的雨中开车送同学去机场。每次都是去时天黑，回时天蒙蒙亮。在蒙蒙亮中，雨刷拨开车前玻璃上的水滴，高速路两旁的树木和前方的天际让我史无前例地发觉得这个地方对我来说已是熟悉。

 

第二个法学院到现在刚好也上了一半。大概要完完整整地读两个法学院，感觉基本就是“一切都理解过了，一切又都在重新理解之中”。然而跟以前不太一样的感觉可能是，法律这东西学多了，想问题就会越来越像一个法棍（我觉得讼棍这个词相对包容性不够强，所以还是用这个面包的名字吧）。比如说，复习structured finance的时候，我晚上躺在床上就经常会冒出能不能把别人欠我的请客吃饭债权都securitize起来卖出去，然后自己宣布破产，以此免除我欠别人的请客吃饭债务。这典型的是一个法棍的猥琐想法，或者换言之，“法律人的思维方式”。

 

关于07年的另一点，就是，个人生活上的变化是最没有料到的。一个人永远无法想见会在什么时间什么地点以什么方式遇见/重遇一个人。自己能够绝对有把握的事情实在是太少了，而更加没有把握的是，你如何知晓没有把握的事情会对自己有利还是不利？

 

美国东部时间12月31日的晚上老同学（们，因为实际是两个，虽然用了同一个电话）从华盛顿打过电话来问新年，再次提醒我自己一向是如何惰于问候。祝大家08年多些顺心。