“人是不理性的”，这个命题其实早就算不上一个有学术意义的命题了——尽管（不幸地），到今天仍然有无数的人试图将高调地甩出这么一句饱含深情而又含混不清的论断作为批评经济学及任何与理性选择有关的理论的全部智识基础。

“人的非理性是具有系统性而且稳定的，其系统性和稳定性是可以描述并预测的”——这是一个具有重大学术意义的命题，已经有人靠这个得了诺贝尔奖，以后应该还会有人继续得；但得不得奖则远没有这一命题巨大的智识冲击力来的重要。

"Predictably Irrational"是刚刚从MIT商学院被挖回杜克商学院的Dan Ariely教授今年上半年出版的新作，据说相当畅销——如果是真的，这也不奇怪，出色的学术并不意味着艰涩的词藻，好的理论其实说出来完全可以很简单。Ariely本人成长于以色列，年轻时遭遇到该国常见的爆炸袭击，全身70%面积的皮肤严重烧伤。然而正是在此后的住院期间，护士每次给自己换药造成的疼痛感的差异让他不禁产生疑问和思索，而这也成为其此后在美国求学和研究中就人类非理性认知行为进行探索的重要灵感源头。（任何形式的）经济学或者理性选择的批评者常常宣称人类许多最深刻的感受是无法量化无法比较因而不能进行所谓的“理性”分析的。作为一个真正承受过常人所难以想象的痛苦的人，Ariely却从自身体验出发走上“理性”分析人类非理性行为的道路，试图展示人类行为非理性当中的“理性”（事实上是某种——“行为学的”——经济学的）规律和逻辑。

Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions  (Hardcover)

by Dan Ariely (Author)

 http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/product-description/006135323X/ref=dp_proddesc_0?ie=UTF8&n=283155&s=books 

Editorial Reviews

From The New York Times Book Review
"Obviously, this sly and lucid book is not about your grandfather’s dismal science…. Predictably Irrational is a far more revolutionary book than its unthreatening manner lets on. It’s a concise summary of why today’s social science increasingly treats the markets-know-best model as a fairy tale….he and his fellow social scientists want to replace the "rational economic man" model with one that more accurately describes the real laws that drive human choices."

From USA Today
"Surprisingly entertaining. . . . Easy to read. . . . Ariely’s book makes economics and the strange happenings of the human mind fun."

More Praise for Predictably Irrational
"A marvelous book that is both thought-provoking and highly entertaining, ranging from the power of placebos to the pleasures of Pepsi. Ariely unmasks the subtle but powerful tricks that our minds play on us, and shows us how we can prevent being fooled."
Jerome Groopman, Recanati Chair of Medicine, Harvard Medical School,and New York Times bestselling author of How Doctors Think

"Dan Ariely is a genius at understanding human behavior: no economist does a better job of uncovering and explaining the hidden reasons for the weird ways we act, in the marketplace and out. Predictably Irrational will reshape the way you see the world, and yourself, for good."
James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of Crowds

"Filled with clever experiments, engaging ideas, and delightful anecdotes. Dan Ariely is a wise and amusing guide to the foibles, errors, and bloopers of everyday decision making."
Daniel Gilbert, Professor of Psychology, Harvard University, and New York Times bestselling author of Stumbling on Happiness

"This is going to be the most influential, talked-about book in years. It is so full of dazzling insights--and so engaging--that once I started reading, I couldn’t put it down."
Daniel McFadden, 2000 Nobel Laureate in Economics, Morris Cox Professor of Economics, University of California at Berkeley

"Predictably Irrational is wildly original. It shows why--much more often than we usually care to admit--humans make foolish, and sometimes disastrous, mistakes. Ariely not only gives us a great read; he also makes us much wiser."
George Akerlof, 2001 Nobel Laureate in Economics, Koshland Professor of Economics, University of California at Berkeley

"The most difficult part of investing is managing your emotions. Dan explains why that is so challenging for all of us, and how recognizing your built-in biases can help you avoid common mistakes."
Charles Schwab, Chairman and CEO, The Charles Schwab Corporation

Book Description
Why do our headaches persist after taking a one-cent aspirin but disappear when we take a 50-cent aspirin?

Why does recalling the Ten Commandments reduce our tendency to lie, even when we couldn't possibly be caught?

Why do we splurge on a lavish meal but cut coupons to save twenty-five cents on a can of soup?

Why do we go back for second helpings at the unlimited buffet, even when our stomachs are already full?

And how did we ever start spending $4.15 on a cup of coffee when, just a few years ago, we used to pay less than a dollar?

When it comes to making decisions in our lives, we think we're in control. We think we're making smart, rational choices. But are we?

In a series of illuminating, often surprising experiments, MIT behavioral economist Dan Ariely refutes the common assumption that we behave in fundamentally rational ways. Blending everyday experience with groundbreaking research, Ariely explains how expectations, emotions, social norms, and other invisible, seemingly illogical forces skew our reasoning abilities.

Not only do we make astonishingly simple mistakes every day, but we make the same types of mistakes, Ariely discovers. We consistently overpay, underestimate, and procrastinate. We fail to understand the profound effects of our emotions on what we want, and we overvalue what we already own. Yet these misguided behaviors are neither random nor senseless. They're systematic and predictable—making us predictably irrational.

From drinking coffee to losing weight, from buying a car to choosing a romantic partner, Ariely explains how to break through these systematic patterns of thought to make better decisions. Predictably Irrational will change the way we interact with the world--one small decision at a time.

About the Author
Dan Ariely is the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Behavioral Economics at MIT, where he holds a joint appointment between MIT's Media Laboratory and the Sloan School of Management. He is also a researcher at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and a visiting professor at Duke University. Ariely wrote this book while he was a fellow at the Institute for Advance Study at Princeton. His work has been featured in leading scholarly journals and a variety of popular media outlets, including the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the Boston Globe, Scientific American, and Science. Ariely has appeared on CNN and National Public Radio. He divides his time between Durham, North Carolina, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and the rest of the world.